Quite a presidential week – for Bob Dole. A three-time loser in national campaigns, Dole may try again in 1996. If he does, there’s no assurance he’ll get there. The same forces that push him into a lead role may ruin him later. He is, after all, the consummate insider in a nation that abhors powers that be. But in the meantime, this could be the start of Dole’s season. Newt Gingrich will get the ink, Dole the dealmaking clout. He has become, however temporarily, de facto copresident in what is, however temporarily, a coalition government. ““He’s The Man,’’ says GOP consultant Ed Rollins.
When the tectonic plates shifted last month, Dole popped up in the middle. To his left, Bill Clinton and a rubble of Democrats; to his right, Gingrich and an impatient majority of conservative House Republicans. Clinton has to worry again about Whitewater and ““character.’’ Gingrich must fend off a press corps hungry for evidence that he’s scandalous, hypocritical or squirrelly. Dole will position himself as the sober elder statesman between – and above – two garrulous and controversial sidekicks.
Once regarded as mean and slashing, Dole now seems comparatively warm and fuzzy to a Democratic establishment alarmed at the advent of Newt. At 71, he has been in Congress since 1961. Dole is the devil the Democrats think they know. They’re depending on him, naively, to rein in his party’s hard-charging far right. Meanwhile, his approval ratings are on the rise. Should he run, he’ll have no trouble raising the $20 million needed, and a ““front loaded’’ primary schedule helps the well funded. Now Dole has the chance, and the challenge, to show leadership by brokering bipartisan deals.
At present, Clinton isn’t much of a factor. Though he lobbied effectively for GATT, Dole’s opposition would have killed it – and his strong support was crucial to getting it through. Clinton, for the most part, has disappeared since Election Day. His aides remain in a funk. A comeback plan is yet unwritten. Staff changes are rumored, but none was made final last week. Two top political staffers – George Stephanopoulos and Harold Ickes – soon will be preoccupied by new Whitewater hearings.
Clinton even misfired in his first attempt to mimic Gingrich’s ““Contract With America.’’ Surrounded by military officers, the president last week announced that he would seek a $25 billion increase over the next six years in defense spending. Gingrich and the boys laughed. In a new survey by GOP polltaker Frank Luntz, the contract’s call for beefing up the Pentagon finished dead last among the voters’ priorities.
From a safe perch in the Senate, Dole can keep his distance from Gingrich’s coming struggles. Newt has that darned contract to keep, and it includes the promise of a prompt vote on a term-limiting constitutional amendment. Senior Republicans in the House are wavering, for the understandable reason that they’re tasting majority power for the first time in 40 years. Yet strictly limiting terms is one of the most popular ideas in the contract, especially among Perot voters. ““It’s off the charts,’’ says Rep. Bill McCollum, a staunch supporter.
Just ask Rep. Dick Armey, Newt’s second in command. He made the mistake of musing aloud that maybe the limits weren’t required anymore. His office switchboard last week was jammed by angry calls. ““The Republicans don’t dare walk away from it,’’ says polltaker Luntz. ““If they do, they’ll pay for it big time.’’ Dole and most Senate Republicans are against term limits, but they have the luxury of waiting while the House squirms.
Dole’s virtual presidency may not last long – and won’t easily lead to a real one. An era of ““congressional government’’ is at hand, says historian Michael Beschloss. So breaking gridlock now is Dole’s job. He has to deliver deals: on a balanced budget, on a tax cut, on welfare reform. He will get presidential-level credit – or blame – for economic stewardship. If the economy turns sour, says analyst Kevin Phillips, Dole will regret his exposure.
Even in a good economy, GATT could haunt him. By removing trade barriers, GATT could wipe out some lower-wage jobs. It’s more controversial at the GOP’s grass roots than was apparent in the surprisingly easy votes in Congress, says Phillips. The alliance that opposed it – including Ross Perot, Ralph Nader and Pat Buchanan – is representative of something larger and real. To their followers, GATT is just another conspiracy of the haves.
Dole faces a young, ideologically driven generation of Republicans – and they distrust him. As evidence, the new 53-seat GOP majority in the Senate last week voted out his longtime deputy, Alan Simpson of Wyoming, and installed a Newtonian (and former House member), Trent Lott of Mississippi. He’s an ally of Dole’s presidential rival, Sen. Phil Gramm, another former House colleague of Newt’s.
Dole is poorly positioned to play the outsider. And he won’t try. If he runs, he’ll keep the majority leader’s job. Hunkered down in his private office last weekend, he was philosophical about his splendid entrapment. ““It’s not like I’ve been locked up here,’’ he said. ““I’m out all over the country all of the time, talking to, quote, real people. Now I have a chance to get things done here. Then it all depends on who else is running.’’ In other words, politics is a game of comparison. And for now, at least, it’s a game very much to Bob Dole’s liking.
