More from CFB Matrix: Dave compiles the top 25 from data scientists and top handicappers
It is no surprise Weeks 1 though 4 are the best for favorites from a straight-up perspective, as these are mostly warm-up weeks before conference games begin. According to the data, Weeks 5 and 6 look to be a “feeling out” period for oddsmakers, as they try to balance the early conference and non-conference contests. By Week 10, it looks like the books have it figured out, as the winning rate of favorites increases through the month of November. When the championship and bowl season hits, however, it all goes out the door, as Weeks 15 through 18 produce just a 66-percent winning rate.
Below is a week-to-week breakdown showing the favorites winning percentages over the last six years:
Week 1 – 86.1 percent Week 2 – 85.6 percent Week 3 – 81.0 percent Week 4 – 83.2 percent Week 5 – 73.3 percent Week 6 – 75.3 percent Week 7 – 78.1 percent Week 8 – 77.6 percent Week 9 – 73.1 percent Week 10 – 74.9 percent Week 11 -75.9 percent Week 12 – 78.9 percent Week 13 – 77.6 percent Week 14 – 77.0 percent Weeks 15-18 – 66.0 percent Total – 78.6 percent
Digging deeper: The Linemakers on Sporting News dug a little deeper into this Week 5 warning and found that a significant rate of the upsets occur when favorites are laying short prices. If a favorite closes at -4.5 or less, the dog is 42-32 straight up. Teams sitting in this window as of Thursday include:
Alabama +2 at Georgia Florida International +3 at UMass South Carolina +2.5 at Missouri Vanderbilt +1.5 at Middle Tennessee State Louisville +4.5 at N.C. State Minnesota +4 at Northwestern Tulane +3 vs. Central Florida Texas El-Paso +3.5 vs. Texas San-Antonio Colorado State +4 at Utah State Pitt +4.5 at Virginia Tech
September bye weeks: To add to the intrigue of upset percentages in Week 5, teams coming off of a bye week in September post a 39.3 percent straight-up winning percentage. Those teams for this week are:
Oklahoma -6.5 vs. West Virginia Miami -6.5 at Cincinnati Pitt +4.5 at Virginia Tech Clemson -1 vs. Notre Dame Iowa State -16 vs. Kansas Kansas State +8 vs. Oklahoma State Temple -22 vs. Charlotte Air Force +5 at Navy Georgia State vs. Liberty (no line) Washington State +18.5 at Cal Troy -7 vs. South Alabama Tulsa +7 vs. Houston Tulane -2 vs. Central Florida Utah State -4.5 vs. Colorado State South Florida +8.5 vs. Memphis New Mexico State +13 at New Mexico
With 16 teams, the trend implies 10 of the above will lose this week.
This is an edited and abridged excerpt from Dave Bartoo’s digital magazine, CFBMatrix. For more, check out Dave’s site.
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Dave Bartoo is a growing face and voice in college football with his unique angles, ideas and publications. You can find his work and digital magazine library at CFBMatrix.com, follow him on Twitter @CFBMatrix, get his apps for Apple or Google Play and hear him on iTunes.
Got a question about a team not on here and if they are close? Tweet Dave or email him.
