Yet, for the moment, the beauty of digital TV is only screen-deep. Behind the extraordinary pictures is a blizzard of confusing static and conflict, along with a surprise or two. Several computer-industry giants, all of whom see the TV set morphing into the computer in the digital age, are bluntly challenging consumer-electronics giants in the race to supply the home appliances to receive digital TV. Among them is software giant Microsoft, which also pounced last week to secure a spot in the merging worlds of TV, the Internet and computers by acquiring WebTV, the fledgling deliverer of the Net directly to TV sets. In cable-TV land, meanwhile, operators are touting plans to roll out digital offerings of their own, and they’re being pointedly noncommittal about whether they will carry those of rival TV broadcasters to their 60-million-plus cable customers, as they must now do with the old-fashioned TV channels. On another front, satellite-TV operators are boasting that they have been beaming digital broadcasts to a small but growing base of customers since 1994.
For the nation’s 100 million TV households, it’s all adding up not to couch-potato bliss but to befuddlement. Should they put off purchasing new TV sets until the digital models arrive late next year? Is the set that was under the Christmas tree already obsolete? Should they take the plunge on a PC that may or may not capture the crispest digital-TV picture–or spring for a digital set that costs $5,000, more or less? And if consumers are merely confused now, they’ll turn downright angry later when they learn an as yet little-known fact about digital TV: some of them will lose access to certain of the broadcast channels they now receive.
The turmoil isn’t surprising. Previous shifts in media technologies have caused plenty of turbulence: think of what TV did to the movies, or what compact discs did to vinyl. This time around, the effects are magnified by the infinitely greater global stakes involved. With the convergence of the communications industry-from broadcasters to phone companies to media concerns to consumer-electronics giants-the digital age is exposing powerful conflicting business interests and visions. For example, it’s little wonder that computer makers are clashing with consumer-electronics companies: at stake is some $150 billion in sets for receiving digital TV.
Digital TV was born roughly 10 years ago. Over the entire history of American television, broadcasters have delivered their signals in analog format. The only major innovation was color, in 1964. The turning point toward digital TV came in 1987, when Japan seemed far ahead of the United States in developing so-called high-definition TV (HDTV). Prodded by the television industry, and with growing concern among policymakers about the fate of American technology, the government began a prolonged debate on spectrum and technology issues. Just two weeks ago the Federal Communications Commission agreed to lend broadcasters some precious spectrum to introduce digital TV. “The commission fired the gun for the start of the digital-TV race,” said Patrick Griffis, a Panasonic executive.
In most respects, the course set out by the FCC was as clear as a digital-TV picture. Led by the major networks, the industry must phase in digital TV, beginning with broadcasts in the top 10 markets within 18 months and in the top 30 markets a year later. By 2006 all broadcasting will be digital. During the transition, stations must continue to send out the old-fashioned signals, though gradually winding down such broadcasts. It will all be an unprecedented engineering feat, requiring the networks and 1,600 local stations to replace the U.S. broadcasting system, either by retrofitting or by rebuilding everything from the ground up.
The schedule may be straightforward, but digital TV is fuzzy in other regards. For starters, what digital will be isn’t as clear as it first appears. It’s generally understood to be high definition-lifelike pictures with CD-quality sound. In fact, HDTV is only one of 18 different formats. The others offer less lifelike quality than HDTV but are still markedly better than today’s picture. Digital TV also offers a remarkable expansion of capacity. With most of the formats, broadcasters can squeeze several programs, such as data or Internet services, into the channel space that now carries only one. Such computerlike capability has set the stage for the industrial clash over digital TV. PC makers view digital TV as yet another software offering that makes computers appealing and versatile, while broadcasters and set makers figure that the public won’t want its entertainment delivered through a piece of interactive office equipment.
Last week three PC titans-Compaq, Microsoft and Intel-fired the first volley. In a press conference at the convention they outlined their preference for three formats that are more PC-friendly-most notably excluding HDTV, the format that broadcasters and TV-set makers embrace. Forecasting sales of 20 million to 40 million PC-TVs over the next five years, computer makers vow to get vastly more digital receivers into the home than set makers will with their $3,000 to $5,000 offerings. “If you were an advertiser on TV, who would you be concerned about?” asks Bob Stearns, Compaq’s top technology exec.
Despite the promise of the digital-TV age, confused consumers are beginning to fret. It’s a worry the broadcasters and TV-set and PC makers say is understandable but unwarranted. For one thing, broadcasters will continue analog broadcasts for another decade or so. To further preserve the life of existing sets, equipment makers will market converters that enable those sets to accept the digital signals. In home electronics, “one new technology doesn’t obsolete another,” declares Carl Yankowski, president of Sony Electronics. “Consumers’ pocketbooks won’t be burdened overnight.”
Still, some viewers will lose some of the channels they now get. Why? Experts say that with the spectrum allotted to carry both digital and analog signals during the transition, all broadcasters won’t be able to deliver all of the channels in both formats.
The age of digital TV offers a world of new communications possibilities, plus a magnificently striking picture. Just remember, though, a picture doesn’t always tell the whole story.
