CONSULTING/BANKING:
1996: 43 percent of graduating Stanford M.B.A.s 2000: 27 percent of graduating Stanford M.B.A.s My 2001 prediction: should increase significantly
In the not-so-distant past, many M.B.A.s grabbed jobs at Internet startups rather than opting for the security of consulting firms and investment banks. But the recent downturn in the market seems to have reversed the trend. “When I told my classmates in early 2000 that I was going back to McKinsey [a management consulting firm], they thought I was nuts,” says a friend from Harvard’s M.B.A. class of 2000. “Now they think I’m a genius.” During the past few years, according to my calculations, only 25 to 40 percent of ex-consultants returned to their former employers after business school. This year, 75 percent to 90 percent are expected to return. Consulting firms have definite perks: many reimburse tuition to former employees who return after getting their M.B.A.s, a benefit worth well over $50,000.
Still, times are tougher now. With the weak IPO market, some banking business has dried up. The mantra among companies these days is to conserve cash-which means fewer consulting projects. Reports suggest that plenty of consultants are “on the beach,” or unassigned to a paying project. It gives one reason to pause: Is even the “safe” job safe anymore?
VENTURE CAPITAL AND PRIVATE EQUITY
1996: 7 percent 2000: 14 percent My 2001 prediction: should increase slightly
Despite harder times, venture capitalists are still sitting on billions of dollars. But that doesn’t mean that VC jobs are there for the taking. In fact, most firms are still digesting the new hires they gulped down during better times. Nabbing a job in VC is an art: you must tread a delicate balance between polite persistence and relentless networking. On the other hand, private equity firms, which generally invest in larger or public companies, have become hip again. And many of them are looking for staff to support potential investments in once high-flying but now struggling public companies.
E-COMMERCE AND INTERNET SERVICES
1996: insignificant 2000: 14 percent My 2001 prediction: should drop dramatically
The king is dead; long live the king. Many of the original Internet start-ups have been weeded out; still, the Net’s potential remains. Although my fellow M.B.A.s are much more wary of dot-coms, there are a few ventures still worth joining and a few hardy souls still joining them. Aren’t there?
TECHNOLOGY (SOFTWARE, HARDWARE, TELECOM)
1996: 12 percent 2000: 10 percent My 2001 prediction: should hold steady
While new areas like optical networking and wireless technology remain “the next big things,” the aura of invincibility among technology companies is gone. Leaders like Cisco, Sun and Oracle (whose stocks are down roughly 77 percent, 75 percent and 63 percent, respectively, from their all-time highs) are still attractive companies to M.B.A.s. However, Lucent (down about 87 percent) had to issue press releases denying bankruptcy rumors, and former can’t-miss darlings like independent broadband providers (like Covad, down about 96 percent) have all but imploded.
ENTREPRENEURS
1996: 7 percent 2000: 12 percent My 2001 prediction: should drop
Recently, I shared a laugh with a potential entrepreneur about entrepreneurialism becoming contrarian. There’s no doubt that raising capital is tougher today. Still, all is not in vain. The crash chased away the less daring and killed many start-ups, leaving room for those still in business to grow more conservatively and to woo better talent.
OTHERS
1996: 30 percent 2000: 12 percent My 2001 prediction: unclear
Nonprofit management remains a strength at Stanford; around 3 percent of each class consistently goes into nonprofit or government jobs. Interest in my field of biotechnology, health care and pharmaceuticals continues to grow, with some spillover into consulting, banking and venture capital. Other popular options for Stanford M.B.A.s are to jobs in investment management, hedge funds, consumer products, and media or entertainment.
UNDECIDED AT TIME OF GRADUATION
1996: 1 percent 2000: 11 percent My 2001 prediction: should drop.
In the spring of 2000, a time when most graduating M.B.A.s are seeking jobs, some skipped out and took the summer off, calmly secure that whenever they wanted to start, a week’s worth of digging would unearth more than enough options. No longer. People are stressing out more and accepting offers with visible relief. All I can say is that hopefully I’ll soon be joining the decided.
